THOUGHTS

A new chapter for Europe: an opportunity to strengthen european independence
By Jean-Baptiste GERARD | Nov 9, 2024

The recent re-election of Donald Trump compels Europe to confront a new geopolitical reality. This turning point calls for the continent to adopt a bold vision, one that can ensure its security, defend its economic interests, and establish a balanced power relationship with Washington.

Trump’s return, marked by a confrontational rhetoric, raises critical questions for Europe. His program includes reinforced protectionist measures, a partial military disengagement of the United States, and an « America First » economic strategy that prioritizes American interests. While these choices may concern some, they also offer Europe an unprecedented opportunity to reaffirm its autonomy and strengthen its role on the global stage.

Since World War II, Europe has developed alongside a powerful transatlantic ally. However, this alliance can no longer equate to dependence. Today, Europe stands as an economic and political power that must take charge of its own destiny. It is not just the future of the transatlantic relationship at stake, but Europe’s own future. Trump’s re-election underscores a crucial reality: Europe must find the strength within itself to project into the future.

The potential for a partial U.S. withdrawal from NATO, as considered by Trump, is not merely a challenge but an opportunity for Europe. It necessitates a larger contribution to its own defense. Now is the time to develop strategic autonomy and invest in a common defense—not to divert from NATO, but to balance this alliance. A Europe capable of self-defense not only enhances its own stability but also reduces its dependence on the fluctuations of American policy.

The Trump era, marked by heightened protectionism, poses a direct challenge to the European economy. Increased U.S. tariffs will have significant consequences for key European sectors, including agriculture, automotive, and luxury goods, while fueling inflation. Additionally, Trump aims to reignite a trade war, primarily with China but one that could also impact Europe. By imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese goods, similar tariffs are likely to affect European exports to the United States, impacting European businesses and consumers.

To mitigate these impacts, Europe must diversify its export markets and invest heavily in its local industry. By consolidating its strengths and reducing certain dependencies, Europe can reinforce its economic sovereignty and ensure long-term competitiveness.

In the face of international crises from Ukraine to climate issues to China, Europe must reaffirm its values and leadership. Trump’s likely disengagement from climate matters intensifies the urgency for Europe to become the driver of global ecological transition. Trump’s main opponent may not be Europe or even Vladimir Putin, but China. However, this confrontation could also weigh on Europe, as Trump’s tariffs on European products could mirror those on Chinese goods. In this context, Europe must position itself as the essential mediator and stabilizing force in the world.

The situation is serious and concerning for Europe, especially for France. To address the challenges posed by Trump, it is essential that Europe adopts a vision of unity and solidarity. A European response must start with France and Germany, but both countries must overcome internal challenges and unite to lead Europe. Despite current political and economic difficulties, France and Germany must join forces to position Europe strongly in response to the new American administration. This is a moment for close cooperation among EU members, for shared solutions, and for presenting a united front, not only toward the United States but also to global challenges.

It is also crucial to communicate to Trump that he stands to lose more than gain by opening a trade or military conflict with the European Union. The U.S. economy also relies on its international partners, and Europeans must resist policies or climate stances contrary to their values and interests. Europe must assert its autonomy clearly, remain resilient against external pressures, and continue building a foreign policy of its own. This is a moment of European renaissance, where Europe redefines its alliances and rises to meet its values and ambitions.

Trump’s re-election emphasizes the urgency of a European renewal: Europe must build lasting independence and adapt its strategies to ensure a sovereign future. The challenges posed by Trump are not threats but triggers for a new European momentum. As the United States follows its transformation, Europe can and must become a pillar of stability, a model of resilience, and a leading actor in a multipolar world.

If Europe seizes this opportunity to strengthen its autonomy and strategic resilience, it will emerge stronger. Trump appears intent on breaking the historical link between the U.S. and Europe, preferring to focus on confrontation with China. Within this dynamic, Europe risks being sidelined or relegated to a marginal role. Europe must respond by becoming an active agent of its future and affirming its place as a major international partner—not only to the United States but to the world.

To face this new reality, Europe must adopt strategies to secure its competitiveness and sovereignty:

  • Diversify export markets to reduce dependence on the U.S. and explore new international trade opportunities.
  • Develop local supply chains to minimize the impact of American protectionist policies and strengthen the resilience of strategic industries.
  • Invest massively in innovation and R&D to ensure sustainable global competitiveness, regardless of transatlantic tensions.

To build a Europe capable of competing on the world stage, it is also crucial to support internal initiatives and strengthen partnerships among European actors:

  • Redirect capital toward key sectors within Europe: renewable energies, industrial automation, and advanced technologies to reinforce economic and technological independence.
  • Encourage the growth of European startups and SMEs by providing them with increased financial support to become local and global leaders.
  • Support inter-European partnerships to bolster the entrepreneurial ecosystem, especially in strategic sectors such as cybersecurity, defense, and artificial intelligence.

Europe can transform Trump’s re-election into an opportunity to enhance its strategic autonomy, assert itself on the global stage, and accelerate its shift toward a model of economic independence and resilience.